Flexible Models for Predictive Maintenance

Project time: 2017 – 2018

Budget: 720 876 kronor

Funding: SIP Produktion2030

Maintenance in existing plants is becoming increasingly important, where predictive maintenance has become an emerging technology. The use of decision support tools contributes to environmentally and economically sustainable production. Within this project, different types of digital twins have been designed and evaluated. Specifically, new predictive model types have been tested in two different industrial case studies; a heat exchanger at SSAB and a profiled header at Svenska Fönster AB.

Measured data from the plants have been acquired from existing control systems and with a complementary measurement system. The modeling work has been done offline and analysis of the results has been done jointly by model developers and staff with process knowledge. The aim has been to find general methods for smart maintenance in existing industrial plants. The methods have been evaluated for both usability in specific applications and how well they can be generalized for any industrial plant. The model showing best overall results is method based on latent variables (Lava). A quality of the LAVA model is that the calculated model has few nonlinear terms and thus the problems of over-parametrization that may occur when flexible model types are used in model estimation can be reduced. The LAVA model is a Black box model. The advantage of black box models is that they are general; however, process knowledge is still necessary for successful implementations. The results from the project are promising, but a longer test period is required to rule out e.g. seasonal variations. In addition, a technical platform has been identified for implementation in existing plants.

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